Wednesday, December 19, 2012

Floyd the BPA? You're kidding, right?

I was recently told that Floyd was the BPA for the Cards at #13.  Here was my response.

I certainly don't agree on any level about Floyd. In no way, shape, or form was Floyd the BPA. DeCastro [93], Brockers [94], Coples [94], Ingram [93], Jones [94], and Reiff [93] all graded out same or better than Floyd. [per ESPN]

(And no one in there right mind should pull the "Well that's what the guys at ESPN think and they get it wrong all the time". That's just plain stupid. Sure, they aren't perfect. But neither are we. And those guys get it right more often than not. And even if they don't, could anyone actually say with a straight face that the Cards have a better handle on their grading system than ESPN?)

WR2 was NOT a pressing NEED last year. If anything it was #6 behind 1)HOF QB, 2)LT, 3)RG, 4)OLB, and 5)SILB. In fact, we had a pretty darn good one in Roberts if anyone bothered to notice that Kolb completely ignored him. But Whiz refuses to acknowledge it. He threw Roberts under the bus (his typical MO), and sacrificed the year with the Floyd pick. Floyd hasn't helped this team one iota. And Roberts has made Whiz look stupid. Which is sad, because Whiz drafted him and should have believed in him. EPIC FAIL.

But LT was the #2 overall NEED (behind a HOF QB which didn't look available at the time) and Reiff graded out identical to Floyd [93 to 93 via ESPN]. Reiff would have started out of the gates over Batiste, and served this team well. Maybe even winning us more games and putting us in the playoff hunt. And you could say they didn't know about Levi. Fine. Reiff was still a massive upgrade at RT over Bridges.

Because the state of the line was so bad before the draft, RG became a much more pressing NEED. (This of course assumes that Levi moves to RT where he played well before. If you want to argue that he should be RG... fine. Then replace the RG need with RT. All the more reason to draft Reiff) Whiz was drinking some magic Kool-Aid when he signed Snyder to that rediculous contract. He passed on DeCastro who graded out equal to Floyd [93, ESPN].

OLB was another NEED. It should have been #4 on their list. And Ingram graded equal to Floyd[93]. I just read a stat line from PFF that had him as a top 15 pass rusher. (Sorry, can't find it to post. Found it while I was trolling S.D. forum to see how he was doing via the fans. If anyone cares, the fans seem to love him but think he's being underused, but everyone blames the coaching. Shocker, I know) He's also considered extemely solid in his versatility. Can you imagine him on this defense? Shudder.

And even though Hightower graded lower[91] he was a more pressing NEED. He would have done wonders for our SILB spot. (I love Lenon, but it's time) I know, this discussion is about BPA. Moving on.

And if you really want to argue BPA, I would submit that Brockers, Coples, and Jones [all 94, ESPN] are better. Sure, I think it would have been dumb to draft them. But I believe it was more dumb to draft Floyd. He had a weaker grade and only satisfied a slightly higher NEED. So he was a bad BPA pick, because he was only arguably 4th on the BPA list. (And more technically, if you believe that when there's a tie for BPA, you go with NEED to break it... then that would have him 7th on the BPA list)

And BTW, I actually like Floyd. I agree he's gonna be good. But let's just speculate that he meets his grade and so do these other guys.

By the numbers, Roberts grades out at what?... Let's say 80. I think he's better but I'll stick with that. If Floyd grades out to 93 then that's only a +13 gain.
What's Levi at LT? 70? If I'm being nice. That's a +23 on drafting Reiff.
What's Bridges? 65? That's +28 on drafting Reiff.
What's Batiste? 30? If I'm being nice. That's a +63 on drafting Reiff.
What's Snyder? 60? That's a +33 on drafting DeCastro.
What's O Scho? 70? That's a +23 on drafting Ingram.

(And what's even more infuriating is they could have traded down and picked up an extra pick AND STILL GOTTEN one of these guys. Yes, I know... "we had no good offers". That's what they said. But by what evidence would you trust that Graves knows what a "good offer" is? I never heard them once clarify what those offers were. How do we know someone didn't offer them a late 2nd or early 3rd and their 1st and they could've picked up Russell Wilson as an add-on? They might have gotten Reiff and Wilson instead of Floyd. GRRRR... Whiz/Graves suck as GM.)

I know I'm just guessing these numbers, but the point should be clear as day that we would have gained more at other key positions if we drafted differently. And after watching this season can anyone truly say that drafting Floyd was a wise move? I couldn't at the time and I certainly can't now.

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